There is no shortage of top-class action this coming weekend, with the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse Stakes from Sandown taking centre stage. That contest promises to provide the biggest spectacle of the day as the classic generation locks horns with their elders. However, the most intriguing betting heat comes from Merseyside as Haydock stages the 2025 edition of the Old Newton Cup.
First run in 1965, this £150,000 Class 2 Handicap regularly falls to a runner who goes on to make their presence felt at a significantly higher level. 2003 champ Collier Hill subsequently claimed the Irish St. Leger and Hong Kong Cup; 2004 winner Alkaased landed the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and Japan Cup, and Dangerous Midge crossed the Atlantic to claim a famous victory in the 2010 edition of the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Following the final declarations on Thursday morning, 16 runners remain in contention for a typically competitive renewal. As ever, we will turn to the trends for assistance in identifying our betting selection. Here, we highlight the standout stats and trends for the past ten editions (no race in 2024) and pick out our best bet for the 2025 Old Newton Cup.
Fate of the Favourite
It is fair to say that the Old Newton Cup has been tricky to solve in recent years. Not one of the ten editions in our sample was won by the market leader. Four of the ten winners returned a single-figure SP, and five were priced between 10/1 and 14/1. Former Group 1 winner Dylan Mouth caused the biggest shock when rediscovering his sparkle to claim the 2017 edition at 25/1.
Age of Winner: 4-6 Ideal
The only 10/10 trend concerns the age of the winner. Open to runners aged four and above, only one horse older than six has ever come home in front. All ten winners in our sample fell into the 4-6 age bracket. That stat counts against the topweight Enemy in 2025.
Top Half of the Weights Favoured
The maximum weight carried in the Old Newton Cup is set at 9st12lb and cannot be less than this amount, while the minimum weight carried is 8st2lb. As we can see, the top half to two-thirds of the weights were strongly favoured in our sample. Only one of the ten winners carried less than 8st11lb on the day.
95+ Rating Preferred
As the higher-rated runners inevitably feature in the top half of the weights, our next trend is strongly correlated with the weight carried. However, with the quality of the race varying from year to year, the rating of the winner is worth considering. Having arrived with a rating of 85, the 2023 winner, Wootton’sun, is the big outlier in our sample. With eight of the ten winners entering the stalls rated 95 or above, we will use this as our next key trend.
Arriving in Form
It isn't impossible to win this competitive contest following a subpar effort – as displayed by Notarised (2015), who finished only 15th on his previous start – most winners arrived on the back of a good run. Seven of the ten winners in our sample finished first or second on their most recent racecourse appearance.
Recent Run an Advantage
The results in our sample suggest race fitness is a definite advantage in this event. A break of around two weeks leads the way, whilst no winner arrived on the back of a break of more than 42 days. We will use that 42-day cut-off when awarding our next trends point.
1m4½f.
Stamina Considerations
A strongly run 1m4f at Haydock can provide a stiff test. As such, it isn’t surprising that most winners in our sample had previously scored over this distance or further. One trend point goes to those arriving with a win over 1m4f or further on their record.
Up To This Grade
Over the past ten editions, the Old Newton Cup was won by horses registering a clear career-best win and those who swam in significantly deeper waters earlier in their careers. Overall, seven of the ten winners in our sample arrived with at least one win at Class 2 level or above.
Improving Performers Preferred
Our final trend concerns the rating of the winner compared to their previous career-high mark. Whilst there were exceptions, most notably Dylan Mouth (2017) and Alounak (2021), who had fallen dramatically in the handicap, the overall trend favoured runners on the rise. Seven of the ten winners scored off a mark equal to or above their previous career-high rating.
Betting Recommendations: Don’t Stress, Back David O’Meara Runner
No horse scores the maximum of eight points on our key trends. However, the David O’Meara-trained Stressfree comes closest with a 7/8 score.
Things didn’t go to plan last time out in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot. However, on his previous outing, he got up late to land a Class 2 Handicap over this course and distance off a mark of 97.
He’s 5lb higher here but looked value for more than the narrow winning margin that day, having found himself trapped behind runners when the race began in earnest.
David O’Meara won this in 2016 and 2022, and he can do so again.
- Recommended Bet: Stressfree to Win @ 8/1 with Betfred
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
